Why Bitcoin Isn’t Surging: 5 Hidden Reasons Behind the Sideways Market in 2025

Why Isn't Bitcoin Rocketing Despite Billions Flowing In?

All right, let's be real for a sec. You've all seen the headlines. You got Trump Media, GameStop, Metaplanet, and Micro Strategy all dropping millions, if not billions of dollars into Bitcoin in just the past few months. But here's the thing. If you look at the price of Bitcoin, well, it's kind of been sideways. Like you would expect for all this money coming in to push Bitcoin to new all-time highs, but instead it's kind of just stuck between 100K to 110K for weeks now.

What Gives? Is the Market Broken?

So, what gives? Like, if this much real money is flowing in, why isn't Bitcoin rocketing? Is the market broken? Or is there something else going on that we're all missing? Well, I was wondering the same thing. So, I started digging. And boy are you going to want to watch this whole blog because I discovered five different reasons that collectively explain why the market is acting the way it is.

The Scale of Institutional Buys

Okay, but before we get to the first reason, let's take a big step back. In just the past few months, Micro Strategy bought close to 44,000 Bitcoin for over $4.5 billion. They now hold over 597,000 BTC, about 2.8% 8% of all Bitcoin in existence.

GameStop, which still feels wild to see, picked up 4,700 BTC in their first ever Treasury buy for over $500 million. MetaPlanet, which people are calling the Japanese Micro Strategy, grabbed another 8,000 BTC since the start of May and now holds over 13,000 BTC in total. And then Trump Media with one of the biggest headlines announced plans to raise 2.5 billion for BTC Treasury, joining over 60 other publicly listed companies that have added Bitcoin to their balance sheet.

So we're talking about billions of dollars coming into Bitcoin. And these aren't just rumors or speculation. These are real companies putting real cash on the line.

So... Why Isn’t Bitcoin Mooning?

So with all that happening, you'd think that Bitcoin would be rocketing, right? Like on paper, this is exactly the kind of thing that should send the price to the moon. But markets just aren't that simple anymore, especially in the crypto space. So, let's break down what's really going on. And trust me, there's a lot here that your favorite influencers aren't talking about.

Reason 1: Old Holders and Miners Are Selling

Okay, so first and foremost, for every huge corporate buy, there's just as much Bitcoin being sold by old holders, whales, and miners. For example, in Q1 of 2025, long-term holders sold over 240,000 BTC. That's more than what all these treasury companies bought during the same period.

And miners, they're still adding around $450 new BTC to the market every single day, which is about $48 million in fresh supply per week at these current prices. So, while you see all these bullish headlines, the reality is there's an army of OGs and miners waiting to sell into every rally, soaking up that new demand before it can move the price.

Reason 2: Most Buys Are Done Over the Counter (OTC)

But honestly, supply is only one part of the story here. You see, most of these big corporate buys never even touch the open market. It's not like they're clicking market buy on Binance or Coinbase, after all.

No, they're working with OTC desks doing private deals that match the buyers and sellers directly. Sometimes involving thousands of BTC in a single transaction. Now, why do they do it this way? Well, because it's cheaper. It avoids slippage and nobody frontuns them this way.

And so, that's how a $100 million buy can barely leave a footprint in the price charts.

What This Means for Retail Traders

Okay, but what does this actually mean for us? Well, it means there's no crazy green candle when these big buys happen because all that demand gets absorbed quietly off exchange and the price doesn't have to move an inch. In fact, reports say that most institutions buy Bitcoin over the counter these days. So, the average retail investor never even sees it happen except for the headline after the fact.

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Reason 3: Retail Investors Are Missing in Action

All righty, back to the reasons why Bitcoin is not rocketing despite these billion dollar buys. Because here's the thing. Back in 2021, when Bitcoin was rocketing, it wasn't just institutions playing the game. It was a flood of retail FOMO.

I'm talking about millions of people smashing the buy button at the same time, chasing candles and sending the order book to the moon. It was that raw emotional energy that sent the price vertical. But today, well, retail is basically missing in action.

On-chain activity is near multi-year lows. Google trends for Bitcoin has basically flatlined and alt season is happening in the stock markets, not in the crypto markets.

Reason 4: The Macro Environment Is Still Risk-Off

But honestly, this kind of makes sense, right? Because macro just isn't that great right now. The Fed is stubbornly holding rates at 4.5%. And everybody's worried about a potential recession or the next global trade war. So, until people feel confident again and risk appetite returns, retail just isn't going to chase the price.

And in the meantime, when it's mostly institutions buying, well, all that supply just gets soaked up in an orderly manner. There's no stampede, panic, nor fireworks.

Reason 5: Paper Bitcoin & Derivatives Markets Are Too Powerful

But hold up, because this doesn't tell the entire story yet. There's still one piece of the puzzle that most people overlook. That's actually a huge deal, and I like to call it the paper Bitcoin problem.

You see, when you hear about futures, perks, or even ETFs, you're hearing about financial products that let people bet on the price of Bitcoin without ever having to buy any real Bitcoin. These are basically contracts or IOUs. So, you're not actually touching any real BTC to play the game.

But the problem here is that the amount of paper Bitcoin traded these days is way bigger than the amount of real Bitcoin changing hands on exchanges.

So, if a whale or big fund wants to bet against Bitcoin, they don't even need to dump a bunch of BTC on Coinbase, they can just open up a massive short and suddenly there's a wave of synthetic sell pressure.

And because this paper market is so huge, like there's over 35 billion in open interest right now, the bets and leverage in the derivatives world can actually set the tone for the spot world.

After all, traders and bots are constantly arbitrageing the price. So, the price of paper Bitcoin and actual Bitcoin never stray too far from each other. So, if there's heavy shorting or crazy activity in the futures market, it can drag down the spot price, even if there's plenty of demand for actual Bitcoin.

In other words, the side game has gotten so big that it can overpower the main event at times.

Bitcoin Is Bigger Than Ever (And That Affects Price Moves)

But wait, we also can't forget just how big this market is these days. Like, Bitcoin isn't a small-time asset anymore. It's a multi-trillion dollar asset. So, even a $1 billion buy barely moves the needle.

Back in 2020, a $500 million buy would probably pump Bitcoin 20% in a single week. But now, that's not even enough to break out of a sideways range.

If we look at the daily trading volume across spot markets, that often tops 30 billion. And there are hundreds of funds, family offices, and whales with massive stacks ready to buy or sell at a moment's notice.

What Will It Take for Bitcoin to Moon Again?

So point is, all these different factors combined explain why it's not as simple as billion-dollar buy equals rocket ship. It's why even with these wild headlines, the price kind of just sits there.

But the million-dollar question is, what actually changes this? Like what's it going to take for Bitcoin to really get moving again?

Well, first the long-term holders have got to stop selling because that's the only way for this new demand to actually start moving the needle.

Then we want to see some of these buys actually hit the open market instead of being done through backroom OTC deals.

And then of course macro has to flip, right? Like we need lower rates, a weak dollar, and then we can go full risk on. After all, that's when retail will finally return. And when people start chasing candles, smashing that buy button, well, that's when the real magic happens.

But until then, expect more sideways and a lot more frustration for anyone who thinks these headlines are supposed to moon the price on their own.

Still Wondering About Retail Sentiment?

Oh, and by the way, if you're wondering why retail sentiment is in the absolute gutter right now despite Bitcoin being near all-time highs, then I got you. Just read my blog explaining that phenomenon right.