Are We in the Final Stage of the Crypto Bull Market? Signs, Predictions & What’s Next

Bitcoin's Sideways Action Sets the Stage

This year's sideways price action for the crypto currency markets for Bitcoin did what it always does. Wore people down right before BTC bears got blown out of the water, liquidated a ton of shorts, range break, smashing a big candle to the upside. Happens every time.

Bullish Momentum Is Building

And the bullishness is justified because we've not only got ETFs and publicly listed companies buying Bitcoin, there's also useful crypto legislation incoming. a major resurgence of uh interest in other assets like Ethereum, memecoins making a comeback, ETH ETFs registering huge inflows, ETH Treasury companies scooping up supply as well.

Are We in the Final Stage of the Bull Market?

When ETH moves, then the stage might be setting up for alts to perform as well. But as the heat turns up, it is critical to stay aware of our position in the cycle. So, what I'm asking today is, are we really entering the final stage of the cryptocurrency bull market? Is it almost over? And when I say that, I mean weeks to months till it's over, right?

Evidence That We’re Approaching the Top

Firstly, let's look at the evidence suggesting that yes, it is in fact time to buckle up for the final run. We've got till December, November, and then it's over. Right? One important point is that we just came out of a period of very low volatility. And every time the Bitcoin has been that flat before, well, they came before a big full send, foot to the floor, mega rally, price goes absolutely parabolic.

How High Could Bitcoin Go?

As for how high we might go, well, great chart here from CryptoCon provides a realistic looking price target using Fibonacci levels with $184,000 marked at the top. We've discussed a variety of price predictions here. I think 250K is a top. 180 is a a relatively consensus range. It makes sense, too. This way of measuring has been relatively accurate in previous cycles and the top in this case would then be expected before the end of the year around 180k Bitcoin. All your altcoins go absolutely bonkers.

Macro Indicators and Cycle Phases

Also suggesting we're approaching the endgame in that situation but also we can look at other factors like the global money supply as it relates to Bitcoin. You see the M2 strength according to this analysis goes through three distinct phases. We have bare market end midcycle push and final parabola. The BTC cycle peak occurs after the end of the last phase. This is when cash flow strength has entered a decline. Now, we appear to be in phase three right now, the final parabola, but it still has some way to go. And in that scenario, well, we're going to pump for a bit more. Maybe Bitcoin cycle peak 3 to 5 months from now. Four-year cycle still on, baby.

Timing the Peak: Q4 Expectations

So, put that all together. price targets, timing, etc. And you get again, let's say a pico top BTC price around 184k BTC occurring sometime between October to December. We'll see. Again, I still think we could go 200 250K, but 180, I'll take it. It'll be fine. Also, when it comes to time, we've got a clockwork like history to work from with a typical bull run as shown here by Titan Crypto lasting for around 35 monthly bars, which again corresponds with a Q4 peak.

100 Days Left?

Here's a chart as well from Jelly showing that if this cycle is the same as the last two, which it's a small data set to work on. Can we just point that out here? But if it's the same as the last two, then we should have about a 100 days approximately left of the cycle, another 3 months to lock the f in and make life-changing money before you get another chance to get in four years.

Late Bull Market Mania Approaching

That all sounds relatively plausible and gives plenty of time for ETH to rally and alt season to kick off, ramping up the late bull market mania. And remember that from a psychological point of view, we need space for disbelief to actually shift over into conviction and then flip into fullblown delusional FOMO euphoria. I'm a genius. Okay, remember you're not a genius, just bull market. Sell lock in profits or the market's going to take it from you.

Technical Patterns to Watch

Also, is it just me or does that look like an inverse head and shoulders on the crypto total market cap? Because if ETH is playing catch-up and that plays out, damn man, we could be looking at a huge movement right across the board here for the markets.

Don’t Sell Too Early

But let me just clarify something important here. If we are indeed gearing up for the final stages, that does not mean that it's time to sell right now because there's still plenty of gas left in the tank.

Quick Word About Trading

But before we break down that and what exactly that means, guys, if you're trading these crypto currency markets, I know you are. Obviously, you're here, you're Reading this blog, you're trading crypto, you need a great place to do it at. That place is FEMX, OG cryptocurrency exchange. These guys have been in the business for years. I've been trading over there for years. And here's the deal. You can use it from anywhere in the world. Doesn't matter where you live, you can use FEMX. You can enjoy longing the rips, shorting the dips. You may need a VPN in some cases, but anyway, here's the deal. exclusively right now. Limited time offer. When you sign up using the link right down here, you're going to get an amazing deal cuz they're going to go straight to VIP level two when you use that link. Now, what's that mean for you? That means you're going to get a 50% discount on your spot trading fees and a 40 effing percent discount on your futures trading fees. Look, if you're trading a lot, I know that's a lot of you guys. You know how much those fees add up, man. So, this is a huge fee discount. Absolutely bonkers fee discount. Plus, you can get the usual up to $30,000 in deposit and trading bonuses. Basically, the more you deposit, the more you trade, the more money they're putting back in your account. Man, it's crazy stuff. Go check it out. Link right down here.

Gas Left in the Tank

Now, back to that gas left in the tank conversation. In crypto's final rally, this is when some of the most insane gains are made as tokens get sent to crazy valuations before crashing back down to Earth. If you've been around for a few cycles, you've seen this play out before. And as for what I mean by gas in the tank, there are plenty of top signals that simply have not fired yet.

Top Signals Not Triggered Yet

Coinbase is not yet dominating the app rankings, although it has been quietly rising up the app rankings recently. Bitcoin as a search term is just starting to see an uptick again. Onchain and other indicators are simply just not flashing any warnings yet that a top could be in. In fact, there's about 30 different indicators. Not a single one of them onchain indicators are showing a top signal yet.

Bullish Narratives Are Still Emerging

You can see certain big narratives, ETH as a treasury asset, stable coins, real world assets becoming part of the global financial system, altcoin ETFs, etc., etc., etc. is really just starting to take shape in the mainstream. We might have a lot more gas than left in the tank than people realize.

Accumulation, Not Profit-Taking

You can also see that when BTC rips to new highs, well, at this point in particular, there's really no excess leverage. Well, inflows to accumulation addresses continue to surge. This is slow, deliberate accumulation. Also, we're not seeing profit taking from short-term holders yet, but this chart from CryptoQuant shows how previous tops were indeed marked by exactly that kind of profit realization behavior. Or in other words, traders are still holding out for more. 150K becomes a very likely next local peak.

What If the Bull Run Doesn’t End This Year?

But let's finish by considering an alternative scenario, okay, beyond the next local peak, which is that any coming run is only taking us to the next local top. And that actually what we should be preparing ourselves for is an extended bull market. Looking again at fib levels this time drawn from the last bare market low. 155k corresponds to the 2.618 level which might function as more of a consolidation point for 345 6 months. Break everyone's brains again before continuing up to the 3.618 level which lies at $29,000. Perhaps a blowoff top at 250k.

Could Bitcoin Break the 4-Year Cycle?

we can potentially take it even further if Bitcoin correlates with the stock market rather than running through its standard four-year cycle. And if that happens, okay, then perhaps we get consolidation for 6 months or more above $200,000 after which Bitcoin just keeps ripping even farther because your average stock market bull market lasts for about five years on average and really two and a half years through the current one. and with ETFs and treasury companies, all this stuff, maybe we're just much more correlated with the stock market this time.

What If This Is the Cycle That Breaks It?

There's not, except for that it's happened two times before, there's not a great excuse for the four-year cycle to play out again with Bitcoin just going to drop 90%, all cryptos going to drop 90%, will stocks keep on running for two and a half years straight to new all-time highs because of the AI bubble. Does it really make sense? Remains to be proven, but it's something to think about. Heck, maybe crypto runs right through to the next US elections. Man, we don't top until 2028. Crazy stuff.

Bitcoin's New Macro Reality

It's because Bitcoin is simply operating at a different scale now. It's a $2.4 trillion macro asset, a black rock favorite, a home for corporate balance sheets, cryptos coming in from the cold. Legislation's passing that is massive. The big game is here and people are so feed up in the head from years of PTSD and being broken by these markets. So, if the having cycle has to break sometime, then this cycle looks like the cycle that it breaks. We follow the gold ETF. We follow the standard stock market bull market.

Be Careful With Assumptions

But a word of caution, keep in mind that in every cycle, ideas are floated around about the end of the four-year pattern. Hasn't happened yet. Remains to be proven. We'll only know in 2026 if it's really been broken or not. In fact, those ideas are kind of a bull market requirement to get the blow off top. Some participants need to believe that the run is not ending and to buy the top and be exit liquidity.

We’re Not at the Top Yet

It's a brutal game. Don't hate the player, hate the game, man. It is what it is. Okay? When assets are at their most overextended and the music's about to stop, someone's got to be buying that in order for you to sell it. However, we're not yet at that point. In fact, we're very, very far away from that point.

Still More Room to Run

Even if we get a familiar kind of cycle finale later this year, the final stage should still have plenty more to come before hitting peak prices. We still have yet to hit peak crazy. In fact, we're very far from it at this stage. Maybe people are starting to get a little bit tipsy, but there's still a lot of room left for this party to rock.

Thanks for Reading